Will Connor McDavid’s current streak of seasons without a Hart Trophy end at one? Can Cale Makar regain his Norris-winning form? Is anyone capable of challenging Auston Matthews in the Rocket Richard race?
The 2024-25 NHL season is almost upon us, and that means it’s time for The Athletic to ask its staff for their predictions. We’ll have team picks — including the Stanley Cup winner and the full playoff field — coming soon. For now, we start with individual awards.
To pick apart the results of our polling, provide context and give us a healthy critique, we’ve brought in NHL senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and betting expert Jesse Granger.
GO DEEPERNHL season previews 2024-25: Projecting each team from worst to firstHart Trophy
Given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team. Voted on by the Professional Hockey Writers Association (PHWA).
| Player | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
Connor McDavid | 82.1% |
Auston Matthews | 7.1% |
Nathan MacKinnon | 7.1% |
Jack Hughes | 3.6% |
Goldman: Breaking news, a bunch of us are projecting Connor McDavid to be the most valuable player in the league. The fact that he pushed himself into a really tight race last year after such a slow start is ridiculous, and now he has extra motivation to kick it up a notch after last year’s Stanley Cup loss.
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Gentille: Every year, I try to force myself to pick someone else. Every year, I fail. Voters got to take a break last season, but I don’t think it’ll happen.
Granger: McDavid was the easy choice, but I like the thought process of the few who chose Jack Hughes. If the Devils are as good as I think they are, Hughes should be in the conversation. He’s hovered around the 100-point 82-game pace for the last two seasons. If he can reach triple digits and New Jersey is back in the mix as a contender, he’s a solid pick at 11-1 odds.
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the leading goal scorer at the end of the regular season.
| Player | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
Auston Matthews | 82.1% |
David Pastrnak | 10.7% |
Connor McDavid | 3.6% |
Leon Draisaitl | 3.6% |
Mirtle: Matthews has averaged 60 goals per 82 games in the past five seasons. Second-place David Pastrnak? A full 10 goals behind him. Picking anyone but the Leafs captain at this point is just a contrarian play.
Granger: I’ll admit the Pastrnak pick was a contrarian play, but I see a clear path to a Rocket Richard if the Bruins’ power play improves. Boston ranked near the middle of the pack last season, and Pastrnak scored only 12 goals on it. If he can get that number closer to the 18 he scored the year before (or the 20 he scored in 2019-20 when he won the award), he has a better chance than anyone to beat out Matthews.
Goldman: We’re seeing more 50-goal scorers in recent seasons, but 60 … that’s a pretty high bar to reach.
Gentille: I love a contrarian pick! Elias Lindholm knows how to facilitate offense with elite linemates. That’s good enough to get Pastrnak within spitting distance of Matthews. Maybe. Probably. Whatever.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-around ability in the position. Voted on by the PHWA.
| Player | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
Cale Makar | 53.6% |
Miro Heiskanen | 21.4% |
Roman Josi | 21.4% |
Adam Fox | 3.6% |
Goldman: Surprised that no one put Quinn Hughes here, but a healthy Cale Makar is always a good front-runner. Miro Heiskanen would be fun, but I’ve voted for him here before and been wrong so … back on the Makar train.
Gentille: Yeah, seems like a lot of people said, “Hughes got his Norris, time to move on.” I get it — I voted for Makar, too — but that’s still a little bit odd.
Granger: Makar is the best defenseman on the planet, and voters have had a two-year break. He’s the runaway favorite, and oddsmakers agree, as he’s only plus-250 to win the award.
Is the Selke Trophy Aleksander Barkov’s to lose again this season? (Peter Joneleit / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Selke Trophy
Given to the forward who demonstrates the most skill in the defensive component of the game. Voted on by the PHWA.
| Player | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
Aleksander Barkov | 57.1% |
Nico Hischier | 21.4% |
Auston Matthews | 7.1% |
Jason Robertson | 3.6% |
Roope Hintz | 3.6% |
Anze Kopitar | 3.6% |
Sidney Crosby | 3.6% |
Mirtle: Aleksander Barkov as the new Patrice Bergeron? I’ll buy it. I chose Matthews, but realistically he’s not going to get enough votes until he starts killing more penalties. Which, given Toronto’s center depth, may actually happen?
Goldman: Of all the NHL awards, Selke voting may be the least creative. But honestly, it probably is Barkov’s to lose again — he’s solidified himself as the best two-way player in the league. But the race for second place should be fun.
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Gentille: After 2022-23, I really felt like Nico Hischier had made up ground on Barkov to replace Bergeron as the default Selke vote, but he took a major step back last season.
Granger: If anyone can unseat Barkov, I think it’s Roope Hintz. The Stars should be good defensively yet again, and he leads all Dallas forwards in defensive point shares. In fact, he’s right in line with Barkov’s DPS numbers over the last few years.
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position. Voted on by the general managers of all 32 NHL clubs.
| Player | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
Igor Shesterkin | 57.1% |
Juuse Saros | 21.4% |
Jake Oettinger | 10.7% |
Connor Hellebuyck | 3.6% |
Andrei Vasilevskiy | 3.6% |
Ilya Sorokin | 3.6% |
Granger: I feel like at times this award is given to the goalie who’s most due for a Vezina, and to me, that candidate is easily Juuse Saros. He’s had Vezina-worthy seasons already, like in 2022-23 where he saved 45.49 goals above expected (the third most in the last 17 years) but was just edged out by Linus Ullmark. Saros is incredible, and now he has some scoring firepower in front of him, and could finally rack up the wins required to compete for this award.
Goldman: If Igor Shesterkin can pick up where he left off last season, watch out. He surged up the ranks from February on after a slow start and reminded everyone that he was one of the best in the world. I think he’d have more competition here if Ilya Sorokin was coming into the season 100 percent healthy.
Gentille: All apologies to Jake Oettinger, but I’m not going to make the same mistake twice. I’m all about fresh mistakes.
Jack Adams Award
Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Association.
| Coach | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
Sheldon Keefe, New Jersey Devils | 42.9% |
Lindy Ruff, Buffalo Sabres | 10.7% |
Andrew Brunette, Nashville Predators | 7.1% |
Craig Berube, Toronto Maple Leafs | 7.1% |
John Hynes, Minnesota Wild | 3.6% |
Patrick Roy, New York Islanders | 3.6% |
Jon Cooper, Tampa Bay Lightning | 3.6% |
Kris Knoblauch, Edmonton Oilers | 3.6% |
Paul Maurice, Florida Panthers | 3.6% |
Dean Evason, Columbus Blue Jackets | 3.6% |
Travis Green, Ottawa Senators | 3.6% |
Andre Tourigny, Utah Hockey Club | 3.6% |
Derek Lalonde, Detroit Red Wings | 3.6% |
Mirtle: With huge improvements in goal and on defense, the Devils are absolutely primed for the biggest bounceback around the league so this makes sense. And it will be entertaining after all of the arrows Sheldon Keefe took in Toronto the past few years for failings that, largely, weren’t his.
Goldman: Honestly, I’m a little surprised there isn’t more hype around Kris Knoblauch. But generally, coaches do get dinged for having elite talent on their roster — that’s probably why Jared Bednar hasn’t won this award. Andrew Brunette feels like a strong pick too. But the new coach bump tends to go a long way, so Keefe is a safe choice.
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Gentille: Yep, Knoblauch is going to get the full Mike Sullivan treatment when it comes to the Jack Adams.
Calder Trophy
Given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.
| Player | Percent of vote |
|---|---|
Matvei Michkov | 46.4% |
Macklin Celebrini | 39.3% |
Logan Stankoven | 7.1% |
Jesper Wallstedt | 7.1% |
Mirtle: I have a hard time seeing Macklin Celebrini as the favorite given who he has to play with; only one Sharks player topped 45 points last season, and the roster looks similarly grim.
Goldman: That’s a good point about Celebrini, but wasn’t that also fuel for the Connor Bedard argument last year?
Granger: I know it’s only preseason, but Celebrini has already looked special on the ice with NHL players. I’m sold … as long as he’s healthy.
Gentille: The Matvei Michkov hype train might have picked up a little too much steam, but he’s still my pick. It’s easy to imagine him hitting 20-25 goals and staying on John Tortorella’s good side.
MATVEI MICHKOV OT WINNER 🤯
The kid has six points in three preseason games! pic.twitter.com/v1Mia4y7yH
— NHL (@NHL) September 29, 2024
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Photos: Rob Curtis / Icon Sportswire; Patrick Smith, Rich Graessle / Getty Images)
